Sportsbook Hold and Vig Explained

Hold is the built-in margin a sportsbook charges on every market. It's the difference between the sum of implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market and 100%. The higher the hold, the worse the prices for the bettor.

Calculating hold on a two-way market:

A -110 / -110 market: - Implied: 52.38% on each side, sum 104.76%. - Hold = 4.76%.

A -120 / +100 market: - -120 implied: 54.55%. - +100 implied: 50.00%. - Sum: 104.55%. - Hold: 4.55%.

A -105 / -105 market (Pinnacle reduced juice): - 51.22% on each side, sum 102.44%. - Hold: 2.44%.

Holds across the US betting market:

| Book | Typical hold | Notes | |---|---|---| | Pinnacle | 2-3% | Offshore. Sharp anchor. Not US-licensed. | | BetOnline | 2-3% | Offshore. Reduced-juice options. | | lowvig.ag | 1.5-2.5% | Offshore. Specifically built for sharps. | | BetMGM | 4-5% | US retail. Standard. | | Caesars | 4-5% | US retail. | | BetRivers | 4-5% | US retail. | | DraftKings | 5-7% | US retail. Heavier on player props. | | FanDuel | 5-7% | US retail. Promotional offers offset. |

Why this matters:

A bettor who is genuinely 53% on their bets: - At 4.76% hold (-110), they need to win 52.38% to break even. They net 0.62 units per 100. Tiny edge. - At 2.44% hold (-105), they need to win 51.22% to break even. They net 1.78 units per 100. Three times the edge. - Same skill, different vig environment, dramatically different outcome.

The takeaway: line shopping isn't a "nice to have." It's the difference between losing slowly and winning slowly.

CleverBet's quant agent uses Pinnacle (or fallback sharps lowvig and BetOnline) to find the no-vig true price. Every play is then identified at whichever soft book is offering the worst hold for the side we want — that's where the +EV is.