NFL Parlay Picks vs. Single Bets: Which Is Better for Long-Term Success?

At Cleverbet, we've spent decades perfecting our strategies and leveraging data-driven insights to help you make informed decisions. In this article, we'll delve into why single bets are generally more favorable for long-term success and when parlays might be appropriate—mainly for entertainment or under specific circumstances on platforms like PrizePicks and Underdog.

NFL Parlay Picks – High Risk with Limited Long-Term Value

What Are NFL Parlay Picks?

An NFL parlay bet involves combining multiple individual wagers into a single bet. To win a parlay, all individual selections must be correct. While the allure of a big payout is tempting, the reality is that parlays are high-risk wagers that seldom contribute to long-term profitability.

The Appeal and Pitfalls of Parlays

- Entertainment Value: Parlays can add excitement to your betting experience, especially when you're watching multiple games. They can be fun to play occasionally for the thrill.  

- Low Probability of Success: The odds of winning decrease significantly with each additional selection. This makes parlays an unreliable method for consistent profits.

Exception: Correlated Parlays on PrizePicks and Underdog

Platforms like PrizePicks and Underdog offer unique parlay opportunities where the payouts are 6X on three-teamers and 20X on five-teamers. These correlated parlays can maximize profits under the right conditions because they allow you to leverage your knowledge effectively.

- Correlated Outcomes: By selecting player performance props that are statistically connected, you can improve your chances.

- Enhanced Payouts: The generous payout structures on these platforms make it more feasible to achieve profitable results compared to traditional parlays.

Note of Caution

Even on these platforms, it's essential to approach parlays with a strategic mindset and not rely on them as your primary betting method for long-term success.

NFL Single Bets – The Cornerstone of Long-Term Success

What Are Single Bets?

A single bet involves wagering on one outcome in a single game—be it the moneyline, point spread, or over/under. This approach allows you to focus your analysis and increase your chances of a successful wager.

Why Single Bets Are Preferred

- Higher Probability of Winning: With only one outcome to predict, your chances of winning are significantly better than in a parlay.

- Controlled Risk: Single bets allow for better bankroll management, minimizing the risk of large losses.

- Professional Approach: Seasoned bettors and professionals predominantly use single bets to build consistent profits over time.

Example of Single Bet Success

Suppose you place a $200 single bet on the Dallas Cowboys to cover a -3.5 point spread at -110 odds. A win yields a profit of approximately $181.82. While this may not seem as glamorous as a large parlay payout, it's a reliable way to grow your bankroll steadily.

At Cleverbet, we advocate for single bets as the foundation of a sound betting strategy.

Comparing Risk vs. Reward – Why Single Bets Suit Long-Term Goals

Risk Tolerance and Long-Term Strategy

- Parlays: High risk with the allure of high rewards but low probability of consistent success.

- Single Bets: Lower risk with more consistent, manageable returns, making them ideal for long-term profitability.

Potential Payouts and Success Rates

- Parlays: While potential payouts are higher, the success rate is low, making them unsuitable as a primary betting strategy.

- Single Bets: Offer steady payouts with a higher success rate, aligning better with long-term goals.

When Parlays Might Make Sense

- Entertainment: If you're looking to add excitement to your viewing experience without expecting consistent profits.Like the SuperBowl, or Thanksgiving with the family 

Common Mistakes with Parlays

- Chasing Big Wins: Betting large amounts on parlays hoping for a big payday can quickly deplete your bankroll.

- Overlooking Probability: Ignoring the low chances of winning a parlay in favor of the potential payout.

Bankroll Management – Focusing on Single Bets for Stability

Effective Bankroll Allocation

- Single Bets: Allocate a consistent percentage of your bankroll (e.g., 2-5%) per bet to manage risk effectively.

- Parlays: If you choose to place parlays for entertainment, use a minimal portion of your bankroll (e.g., less than 1%).

Risk Mitigation Strategies

- Disciplined Betting: Stick to single bets as your primary strategy to ensure consistent growth.

- Avoid Overexposure: Don't let the allure of parlays tempt you into risking significant portions of your bankroll.

Long-Term Success

By focusing on single bets and employing disciplined bankroll management, you set yourself up for sustainable long-term success in NFL betting.

At Cleverbet, we provide tools and insights to help you manage your bankroll and make informed betting decisions.